SAIRR today

SAIRR Today: 2008 - the good, the bad, and the ugly – 19th December 2008 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-01-06 09:40

2008 proved to be a tumultuous year in South African politics. A major new black-led political party was formed, President Mbeki stood down, and the country was gripped by the xenophobic riots of May 2008 which attracted world-wide attention.

SAIRR Today: Arms deal saga ensnares another top ANC leader – 12th December 2008 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-01-06 09:40

The decision by President Kgalema Motlanthe to sack the director of public prosecutions, Advocate Vusi Pikoli, raises question marks over the commitment of the new ANC leadership to independent institutions and the fight against corruption. It also taints Motlanthe’s otherwise commendable tenure in South Africa’s highest office. As one of the few senior  ANC leaders to have commanded significant respect both inside and outside the ANC this is a significant blow to all South Africans.

SAIRR Today: Funding the ANC’s expanded social welfare programme – 5th December 2008 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-01-06 09:40

If the next ANC government does not have the funding or the appetite for borrowing to fund its expanded social welfare plan it could simply seize private assets in pension and investment funds to make up the difference.

SAIRR Today: Unemployment and Poverty - An Overview - 28th November 2008 — by Marco Macfarlane — last modified 2009-01-06 09:40

The Institute presents the last in its series of overviews sourced from the latest South Africa Survey. This article focuses on the long terms trends observed in the spheres of unemployment and poverty.

SAIRR Today: Service delivery - An Overview - 21st November 2008 — by Marco Macfarlane — last modified 2009-01-06 09:40

The Institute presents a brief overview of the progress of service delivery in the country, based on data appearing in our latest South Africa Survey.

SAIRR Today: Education - An Overview - 14 November 2008 — by Marco Macfarlane — last modified 2008-11-14 11:51

The Institute provides a brief overview of the state of education in South Africa, using data from our latest South Africa Survey.

SAIRR Today: ANC rebels - a new scenario - 7th November 2008 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2008-11-07 09:08

Much has been written about the threat posed to the ANC by Mosiuoa Lekota and his breakaways. But a greater threat arguably exists to the DA whose centre-right position in South African politics could now face a credible challenge for the first time. The DA will need to get its MPs out of hibernation if it plans to contest this threat.

SAIRR Today: Global slowdown will hit SA hard - 31st October 2008 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2008-10-31 11:14

The credit squeeze in international financial markets and the floundering of several foreign financial institutions has been intensively analyzed in South Arica’s financial press. The international crisis together with fears of global recession have led many analysts to comment that South Africa is better positioned than many parts of the world to weather the crisis. But is this in fact the case?

SAIRR Today: South Africa Survey 2007/2008 - 24th October 2008 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2008-10-24 08:24

This week saw the advance release of the online version of the South Africa Survey for 2007/2008. The Survey was first published by the Institute in 1946/47. It remains the leading reference guide to all aspects of South African life from social and development trends to economics and politics.

SAIRR Today: Participation in the economy - 17th October 2008 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2008-10-17 07:58

The question of re-pricing BEE share transactions in light of the fall in the value of the stock market provides some interesting perspectives on the extent to which black South Africans have obtained access to the higher echelons of South Africa’s formal economy. With certain BEE proponents now all but admitting that the policy will never benefit the broad majority of South Africans it is cause to reflect that education and sound political management provide the best chance of economic upliftment for black and white South Africans alike.

SAIRR Today: Winds of change at the Union Buildings - 10th October 2008 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2008-10-10 07:58

Ten days ago the Institute attended a briefing at the Union Buildings hosted by the head of policy in the Presidency, Mr Joel Netshitenzhe. The briefing was held to launch a 15 year review of the government’s performance published by the Presidency. Media reporting on the briefing missed many pertinent points made by Mr Netshitenzhe and generally failed to convey the tone of the briefing.

SAIRR Today: Politics above education - 19 September 2008 — by Marco Macfarlane — last modified 2008-09-19 09:39

According to a Progress in International Reading Literacy Study (PIRLS) published in 2007, South Africa has the world’s worst performing education system. Prospects for improvement are uncertain. The claim that education for most black pupils was better under apartheid than it is now is no longer made only by organisations such as the South African Institute of Race Relations (SAIRR). Professor Mamphele Ramphele, a former vice-chancellor of the University of Cape Town, and Ms Wendy Luhabe, the chancellor of the University of Johannesburg, also now take that view.

SAIRR Today: Halt this bill! - 12th September 2008 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2008-09-12 07:38

The Films and Publications Amendment Bill has passed through the two houses of Parliament and is waiting for President Thabo Mbeki’s signature before becoming law. But it is a sinister and ill conceived piece of legislation and the president would be well advised to refer it to the Constitutional Court for an opinion on its constitutionality.

SAIRR Today: Is the Presidency more than a one-horse race? - 5 September 2008 — by Marco Macfarlane — last modified 2008-09-05 10:47

Are Mathews Phosa and Kgalema Motlanthe making a move to position themselves as presidential candidates in the run-up to the 2009 elections? Their recent statements suggest that such a move might win significant support while undoing much of the damage that the reckless statements and campaigning of the Zuma camp of the ANC have done to South Africa’s reputation. Those wanting a political solution to the Zuma crisis need perhaps look no further than these two men.

SAIRR Today: The beginnings of a global health disaster? - 29 August 2008 — by Marco Macfarlane — last modified 2008-08-29 12:31

Against the backdrop of a faltering public sector, South Africa now faces a public health threat that is perhaps as serious as the HIV/AIDS pandemic. That threat is TB, and more specifically, extensively drug resistant TB (XDR-TB). This specialised form of TB is one that is resistant to the two first-line treatments, and at least three of the six classes of second-line drugs.

SAIRR Today: Examining the health of healthcare - 22 August 2008 — by Marco Macfarlane — last modified 2008-08-22 14:10

Healthcare is one of our biggest weaknesses in South Africa, and the signs point to things getting worse before they get better.

SAIRR Today: Violence in schools - 15 August 2008 — by Marco Macfarlane — last modified 2008-08-15 17:36

“Children were asked if they felt safe at school, and many did not. That is worrying, but it should not then be taken that these children are in fact not safe. Feeling something does not make it so.” (Education director general, Mr Duncan Hindle, 6 February 2008 )

SAIRR Today: South Africa: Sliding into pseudo-democracy - 8th August 2008 — by Marco Macfarlane — last modified 2008-08-08 10:03

At the national conference of the African National Congress (ANC) held in December last year, at Polokwane, it was decided that the Scorpions would be dissolved. The matter finally reached Parliament last week. According to the chairwoman of Parliament’s portfolio committee on safety and security, Ms Maggie Sotyu, Parliament will indeed dissolve the Scorpions. Ms Sotyu noted that Parliament’s job was to ‘implement the policies of the ruling party’.

SAIRR Today: A false dawn for Zimbabwe - 1st August 2008 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2008-07-31 16:41

There has been much speculation in the media that the Zimbabwe negotiations taking place between the MDC and ZANU-PF in Pretoria herald a new dawn for that country. But the talks, and their success or failure, are falsely heralded as breakthrough in Zimbabwe’s crisis as the problems and challenges Zimbabwe face are now as much about economics and social conditions as they once were about politics. Improving those conditions may take decades regardless of who runs the country.

SAIRR Today: Provincial development key to national poverty alleviation -18th July 2008 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2008-07-17 15:38

The reported decision by the ANC to axe provincial premiers in the Western Cape and the Eastern Cape has again focused the spotlight on provincial performance. The Institute has for several years run a programme to monitor and support the work of the nine provincial legislatures in South Africa. This project has found that, while great developmental disparities exist between provinces, these often have more do with historical and geographical factors than with the political leadership within provinces. Correcting the imbalances may require granting greater autonomy to provincial government.

SAIRR Today: Mann and Mugabe - 11th July 2008 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2008-07-10 11:37

British mercenary Simon Mann was sentenced to 34 years in jail on Monday by a court in Equatorial Guinea following a failed 2004 coup attempt in that country. South Africa’s foreign affairs department responded by saying that the sentence signaled an end to the days of military coups in Africa. But the recent sham election in Zimbabwe, which was carried out under South Africa’s nose, was no better than a military coup and in many respects far worse.

SAIRR Today: Ten points to turn around the South African Police Service - 4th July 2008 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2008-07-04 12:42

The South African Police Service brought out 2007/08 crime figures this week. Overall they showed that most categories of crime continued to be slightly down year on year. The general post-2003/4 decline in crime levels therefore continued. While certain kinds of crime such as house robberies and hijackings increased the police appear satisfied that their targets of a 7%-10% annual reduction in certain crime types are being met. Is this good enough?

SAIRR Today: Zuma’s friends will have to kill millions - 27th June 2008 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2008-06-27 09:10

Julius Malema and Zwelinzima Vavi have both uttered statements that they are prepared to kill anyone standing between Zuma and the presidency. They have also in the past insinuated that the free press, the due process of law, the political opposition, and even political activity within the ANC, have somehow conspired against Zuma. But the real threats to Zuma come not from any of the above but from the poor and the unemployed. If Malema and Vavi want to kill to protect Zuma they will have to start here.

SAIRR Today: African growth - 20th June 2008 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2008-06-20 09:09

Economic data from a number of African economies demonstrate that these are outperforming South Africa. While South Africa remains the continent’s biggest economy it is no longer certain that the continent’s economic destiny depends on South Africa’s performance. With South Africa’s own growth rates under pressure it may be a useful exercise to pay close attention to promising economic performances on display north of our borders.

SAIRR Today: Prague spring or flash in the pan? - 13th June 2008 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2008-06-13 08:43

A development that has accompanied the fall of Thabo Mbeki is that South Africans seem far more willing to hold political leaders to account than was the case just a year ago. Newspaper editorials, columnists, news bulletins, business leaders, and civil society organizations appear to have lost much of the fear that once kept them in awe of the ANC. Will this Prague spring survive or is it simply a flash in the pan until the next government takes office in 2009?

SAIRR Today: A better life for all - 6th June 2008 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2008-06-10 09:27

Much bitter criticism has been directed at Thabo Mbeki and his failed government over the past month. The Institute issued what was widely described as a “scathing indictment” of Mbeki’s tenure in office. No doubt all of that criticism was well deserved by a complacent government that stood by when it should have been apparent that the wheels were coming off for South Africa. But the criticism, our own included, has arguably ignored one vital point - that Thabo Mbeki and his government were elected freely and democratically by a large majority.

SAIRR Today: Look on my works ye mighty, and despair! - 30 May 2008 — by Marco Macfarlane — last modified 2008-05-30 11:12

Crisis time has hit, and South Africa finds itself effectively leaderless. The nation is faced with challenges that perhaps surpass even those faced under apartheid, and there is seemingly no-one at the tiller to navigate the stormy waters.

SAIRR Today: Will we ever be able to live with each other? - 23 May 2008 — by Marco Macfarlane — last modified 2008-05-23 12:07

South Africa is reeling from the xenophobic attacks that continue to rage across the country. Far from dying down, these violent incidents seem to be spreading and intensifying. These events raise important questions about our society, and paint a very gloomy picture of our national psyche.

SAIRR today: Tyranny of the majority - 16th May 2008 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2008-05-16 10:36

The Institute is greatly concerned by events in Alexandra which have now spread to other Gauteng townships. The African immigrant community in Alexandra was hounded and terrorized by South Africans angry at the presence of foreign Africans in South Africa. Reports and our own inspection of affected areas indicate that scores of people were injured and some killed and raped in an orgy of mob violence. Thousands took shelter at local police stations. The police fought running night time battles for much of the week and struggled to maintain some semblance of law and order amid trying circumstances.

SAIRR today: South African solutions for South African problems - 9th May 2008 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2008-05-13 12:09

On Thursday 8th May 2008 the Institute hosted a panel of five of South Africa’s leading economists to discuss growth forecasts for South Africa’s economy. The panel was made up of Azar Jammine, Ulrich Joubert, Elna Moolman, Dawie Roodt, and Chris Hart. While they were not unanimous in all their views a number of common themes emerged from their discussion. These offer hope that better governance and policies could help South Africa’s economy recover from the shocks of Eskom, interest rate hikes, and high fuel prices – to mention but a few.

SAIRR today: A great victory for Africa - 25th April 2008 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2008-04-25 09:38

A week ago the Institute issued a statement that the transport of arms for Zimbabwe across South Africa would put ‘South Africa’s culpability in the Zimbabwe crisis beyond question’. Prior to 2008 the South African government’s response to such a statement would have been something along the line of old ‘kith and kin’ loyalties, white racism, and Zimbabwe’s sovereignty. Quiet diplomacy would have been put forward as the official policy and the arms would already have arrived in Zimbabwe. This time, however, something else happened.

SAIRR Today: Fear and loathing in the rainbow nation - 18 April 2008 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2008-04-21 15:04

Two events over the past ten days each provided a useful perspective on crime and violence in our society. Together they inform a suggestion about what might be done to change the impunity with which criminals have come to operate.

SAIRR today: Expropriation by Executive Fiat - 11th April 2008 — by Chris — last modified 2008-04-18 15:09

Though the Expropriation Bill of 2008 is ostensibly to speed up land reform, it puts many other property rights at risk. For the bill applies not only to immovable property but also to rights in property and movable property, without limitation. It thus governs not only land and mineral rights but also business premises, homes, patents, and shares. It allows expropriation in the public interest by executive fiat and limits the relief available through the courts. It indicates that compensation will be less than market value and seeks to exclude damages for loss suffered. It also puts pressure on expropriated owners to accept the state’s decisions on the amount, timing, and manner of payment of compensation.

SAIRR today: Zimbabwe: Kenyan déjà vu? 4th April 2008 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2008-04-16 13:57

The violence that followed the recent elections in Kenya offers important lessons to other African states trying to escape effective one party rule and move towards a multi-party democracy. The current Zimbabwe elections are a case in point where the similarities to the Kenyan situation outweigh the differences. This is particularly poignant considering what seems to be President Robert Mugabe’s resistance to looming defeat, and promising this morning to “defend the revolution” at all costs, including mobilizing the war veterans.

SAIRR today: Electricity price hikes: The poor will carry the costs - 28th March 2008 — by Fcronje@sairr.org.za — last modified 2008-03-28 15:29

The government through the minister of public enterprises this week announced that electricity prices would have to increased by 60% this year to avoid a 100% price increase next year. The government is correct that a price hike is necessary although it has been vague about the extent of future hikes, as Business Day pointed out this week. The government is wrong though to suggest that poor communities will be shielded from the full extent of the price hikes. They will carry the brunt of the costs.

SAIRR today: Six points that could fix the education system - 21st March 2008 — by Chris — last modified 2008-03-28 09:17

A number of analysts with the notable exception of the head of the Employment Equity Commission, Mr Jimmy Manyi, have identified skills shortages as a constraint on growth in the period to 2010 and beyond. Solving the crisis will require that the education department delivers a quality of school leaver to the labour market and the tertiary education sector that a growing industrialized economy demands. This will require the scrapping of outcomes based education, a greater degree of mother tongue education, re-opening the teacher training colleges, more bursaries for poor tertiary students, and handing control of schools to parents and teachers. Unfortunately there is nothing on the education horizon in either policy or delivery that suggests that the education department will act with the required determination.

SAIRR today: Electricity supply imposes a new speed limit on economic growth 14th March 2008 — by Chris — last modified 2008-03-20 12:26

The forthcoming (March) edition of Fast Facts suggests that electricity supply constraints will keep GDP growth levels below 5% for at least the next ten years.

SAIRR today: Tertiary education transformation - the numbers tell the true story 7th March 2008 — by Chris — last modified 2008-03-19 09:33

The past two weeks have seen a large amount of negative sentiment about race relations and integration in South Africa. Predictably much of this has centered around the tertiary education sector in South Africa. The Institute has gone on the record to say that racial tensions in the country have risen over the past month as indeed they have. This is not surprising considering the nature of the Kovsies incident and the fact that South Africa remains a grossly unequal society.

SAIRR today: Mixed messages emanating from new ANC 29th February 2008 — by Chris — last modified 2008-03-19 09:33

Straddling a range of diverse interest groups threatens to unravel Jacob Zuma’s ambitions to become South Africa’s president in 2009. In presenting mixed messages about economic policy, governance, and race relations Zuma risks losing support from factions on both the left and right of South Africa’s political divide. As an accomplished politician he might manage the growing contradictions for some time to come but events over the past two weeks suggest that Zuma would be well advised to lay his cards openly on the table sooner rather than later.